Future of monsoon could be erratic

Future of monsoon could be erratic

Close on the heels of a World Bank report — warning India of extreme more extreme droughts in large parts, resulting in widespread food shortages in the next few decades — comes more bad news on the weather front
Indian monsoon’s daily variability is likely to increase under future global warming, a new study has revealed.

Computer simulations with a comprehensive set of 20 state-of-the-art climate models were used to derive the likelihood of Indian monsoon to be all the more erratic in near future.

The study conducted by Anders Levermann and Arathy Menon, have found that the ‘‘increased variability’’ translates into potentially severe impacts on people who cannot afford additional loss.

Levermann said that all the different climate models have shown increased variability and adaptation measures are necessary to tackle the problem. He further pointed that if rainfall comes in a spell and is followed by a drought it can be devastating even if the average is normal. This requires the right kind of adaptation measures that account for this variability like intelligent insurance schemes.

The study pointed out that even if global warming is limited to internationally acknowledged threshold of 2 degrees Celsius, this would lead the risk of additional day-to-day variability of 8-24 per cent above pre industrial level.

Menon said that 4-12 per cent increase in the daily variability of Indian monsoon indicate to per degree Celsius of global warming which is a robust indicator that it is going to increase in near future.